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Case Study · Conditional rebate

The first e-commerce promo hedged on a prediction market.

Brand
Forme® Science
Mechanic
‘TEAMUSA’ 100% conditional rebate
Window
Jun 26 – Jul 1, 2026
Hedge
Priced on Kalshi
Promotion
Unlisted page, no paid media
Result
$0 paid out · full price kept
CAMPAIGN SNAPSHOT
‘TEAMUSA’ conditional rebate
95 orders
Enrolled at full price — $0 discount given up
Back if the USA reached the Final100%
Cashback owed$0
TriggerMissed

Playably tied Forme® Science to the 2026 World Cup: shop with code TEAMUSA through the July 1 cutoff, and if the U.S. Men’s National Team reached the Final, the whole product subtotal came back as cashback. Full price at checkout, with the payout priced and carried on Kalshi.

Case Study · Conditional rebate
TEAMUSA · 100% back if the USMNT reached the Final
Results

The trigger missed. The revenue stayed.

1st
E-commerce promo hedged on a prediction market
Kalshi — a first for the category
95
Orders enrolled
Code TEAMUSA, through the July 1 cutoff
+36%
Higher order value on enrolled orders
Versus the same window store-wide
$0
Discount given up
Full price at checkout on every enrolled order

01 — A World Cup window everyone was discounting into.

Forme® Science makes premium posture and recovery apparel. A tournament-sized moment was coming, and the default play was a tournament-sized sale.

They wanted the attention without teaching their customers to wait for a markdown.

02 — 100% back if the USA reached the Final.

Shop Forme with code TEAMUSA through the July 1 cutoff, and if the U.S. Men’s National Team reached the 2026 World Cup Final, the entire product subtotal came back as cashback. No claim forms, no hoops, and the gear shipped either way.

03 — The payout was hedged on Kalshi.

Playably priced the odds of that result on Kalshi and carried the position, which made this the first e-commerce promotion hedged on a prediction market. Forme sold at full price and never took on the exposure. Nothing was bought to promote it, and nothing on the site pointed to it. The offer page was unlisted, with no homepage banner and no navigation link, so shoppers reached it only from the link shared on social and in Forme’s own SMS and email. Every paid campaign running that week was always-on prospecting that pre-dated the promotion and never mentioned it.

04 — The outcome: no payout, and a category first.

The USA did not reach the Final. 95 orders were enrolled at full price, $0 of cashback was owed, and the mechanic itself carried the story onto PRNewswire, EQS, ADVFN and USA Today’s press section.

Why it worked

Four reasons this beats a World Cup sale.

A

Stakes, not markdowns.

Shoppers paid full price for premium posture apparel and got a real shot at every dollar back. Nothing was discounted to create the urgency.

B

The risk sat on a market.

Playably priced the payout on Kalshi and carried it. Forme’s margin was never exposed to the result of a football match.

C

A missed trigger is the product working.

The USA did not reach the Final, so $0 of cashback was owed and Forme kept full-price revenue on all 95 enrolled orders.

D

The mechanic earned the coverage.

A category first carried the story onto PRNewswire, EQS, ADVFN and USA Today’s press section without a media buy behind it.

Have a moment your customers are already watching?

Bring us the trigger. We’ll handle everything else — rules, hedging, payouts, the lot.